IRA Political Risk Is Real but Overstated

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) creates a hard bifurcation in IRA treatment by technology: solar and wind face a July 3, 2026 construction-start deadline to preserve safe-harbor access, with projects starting after that date required to achieve placed-in-service by December 31, 2027. Energy storage, geothermal, biomass, and hydro receive substantially more favorable terms — the ability to start construction through 2033 at full credit rates before phase-down begins. This asymmetry is a direct investment signal: capital that was balanced across the renewable stack is now being pushed toward storage and geothermal, which retain a multi-year runway. The compliance burden is also escalating — each project must track FEOC-clean supply chains and domestic content percentages for a decade post-commissioning. Developers who haven't rebuilt their project finance models around §48E eligibility and 10-year recapture risk on ITCs are behind the curve. Source: Baker Tilly OBBBA analysis