Green Hydrogen Cost Curve Is Behind Schedule

The $1/kg green hydrogen target by 2030 — the IEA's threshold for broad industrial competitiveness — is not on track. Current best-in-class production costs in high-renewable-resource regions (Chile, Australia, Middle East) sit at $3–5/kg, and U.S. projects face $5–8/kg all-in. The core problem: electrolyzer capital costs have not fallen on the anticipated learning curve (projected ~80% reduction; realized ~40% by 2024), and renewable electricity — the dominant cost input at ~70% of LCOE — has not gotten cheap enough fast enough relative to load factor assumptions. The 45V hydrogen production tax credit under IRA is transformative but subject to strict additionality and hourly matching rules that dramatically limit eligible projects. Underwrite conservatively.