E-Fuels for Aviation: Necessary But Not Cheap

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) produced via the power-to-liquid (PtL) pathway — synthesizing e-kerosene from green hydrogen and captured CO₂ — is the only scalable pathway to deep decarbonization of long-haul aviation. The problem is cost: PtL SAF currently runs $8–15/gallon equivalent versus $3/gallon for conventional jet fuel. EU ReFuelEU Aviation regulation mandates 35% SAF blend by 2035 (including 5% synthetic), creating a compliance-driven demand floor that will pay a premium above market. HIF Global (partnered with Porsche and ExxonMobil) and Norsk e-Fuel are the leading developers. This is a 10-year infrastructure buildout story requiring patient capital and government offtake — not a 2026 return story.