Residential Solar Economics Are Geography-Dependent

Rooftop solar economics in the U.S. have bifurcated dramatically by state following NEM 3.0 in California — which cut retail export rates by ~75%, extending payback periods from 6 to 10+ years and causing a 70%+ installation volume decline in the state. California's experience is a leading indicator: utility commissions across the country are under pressure to reform net metering as distributed solar penetration grows and cost-shifting to non-solar ratepayers becomes a political issue. Markets with stable or improving NEM structures (Texas ERCOT, Florida, mid-Atlantic) are the durable growth vectors. Battery attach rates are the critical variable — solar-only economics deteriorate under reformed NEM; solar+storage restores the value proposition.