Tidal and Wave: Still Pre-Commercial

Tidal stream and wave energy remain pre-commercial at scale despite 15+ years of development. The core problem is device survivability in high-energy marine environments — corrosion, biofouling, and extreme loads destroy economics on 5–7 year replacement cycles. Orbital Marine and Minesto have credible technology but no path to sub-$100/MWh LCOE in the current decade. The honest investor view: this is a venture/grant-funded science project until a material reduction in O&M cost per MWh is demonstrated over a 10-year operating record. Watch, don't buy — unless you're a strategic with a long duration balance sheet and a grid decarbonization mandate in island or coastal markets.