Green Steel Is the Most Credible Near-Term Win

Direct reduced iron (DRI) + electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production using green hydrogen is the most commercially credible heavy industry decarbonization pathway in existence today. SSAB's HYBRIT process in Sweden produced the first commercial green steel delivery in 2021. H2 Green Steel is constructing a 5 Mt/year facility in Boden, Sweden with binding offtake from Volvo, Scania, and Mercedes. The economics are not yet at parity with blast furnace steel — green steel carries a €150–300/tonne premium — but EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) implementation from 2026 will meaningfully close this gap by pricing conventional steel's embedded carbon. The investable thesis: long-duration supply agreements with green steel producers who have secured cheap renewable power and hydrogen supply.